Signal confidence limits from a neural network data analysis

DOI10.1016/S0010-4655(97)00111-2MaRDI QIDQ1967215zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors B. Berg, Jürgen Riedler

Publication date 20 March 2000

Published in Computer Physics Communications (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ex/9703001

zbMATH Keywords

analysis of experimental dataconfidence boundsdirect signal observationneural networkparticle physics data analysis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Parametric tolerance and confidence regions (62F25) Other elementary particle theory in quantum theory (81V25)

Abstract: This paper deals with a situation of some importance for the analysis of experimental data via Neural Network (NN) or similar devices: Let $N$ data be given, such that $N=N_s+N_b$, where $N_s$ is the number of signals, $N_b$ the number of background events, both unknown. Assume that a NN has been trained, such that it will tag signals with efficiency $F_s$, $(0<F_s<1)$ and background data with $F_b$, $(0<F_b<1)$. Applying the NN yields $N^Y$ tagged events. We demonstrate that the knowledge of $N^Y$ is sufficient to calculate confidence bounds for the signal likelihood, which have the same statistical interpretation as the Clopper-Pearson bounds for the well-studied case of direct signal observation. Subsequently, we discuss rigorous bounds for the a-posteriori distribution function of the signal probability, as well as for the (closely related) likelihood that there are $N_s$ signals in the data. We compare them with results obtained by starting off with a maximum entropy type assumption for the a-priori likelihood that there are $N_s$ signals in the data and applying the Bayesian theorem. Difficulties are encountered with the latter method.

Recommendations

• Validation of input data for trained neural nets
• A program for the Bayesian neural network in the ROOT framework
• Bayesian neural networks with confidence estimations applied to data mining.
• The maximum likelihood neural network as a statistical classification model
• The signal estimator limit setting method

Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3854176 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3782216 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 18827 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 41029 (Why is no real title available?)
• IX. On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses
• New algorithm to investigate neural networks
• The concepts of inverse probability and fiducial probability referring to unknown parameters

Cited in

(4)

• Validation of input data for trained neural nets
• A program for the Bayesian neural network in the ROOT framework
• A coverage study of the CMSSM based on ATLAS sensitivity using fast neural networks techniques
• Signal probability estimation with penalized likelihood method on weighted data

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• BayesDA

This page was built for publication: Signal confidence limits from a neural network data analysis

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q1967215)