A dynamical framework for modeling fear of infection and frustration with social distancing in COVID-19 spread
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Publication:1979635
Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of qualitative behavior---no outbreak, controlled outbreak, and uncontrolled outbreak. We also demonstrate that the model can produce transient and sustained waves of infection consistent with secondary outbreaks. We fit the model to cumulative COVID-19 case and mortality data from several regions. Our analysis suggests that regions which experience a significant decline after the first wave of infection, such as Canada and Israel, are more likely to contain secondary waves of infection, whereas regions which only achieve moderate success in mitigating the disease's spread initially, such as the United States, are likely to experience substantial secondary waves or uncontrolled outbreaks.
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Cited in
(5)- A mathematical model of COVID-19 and the multi fears of the community during the epidemiological stage
- Waves of infection emerging from coupled social and epidemiological dynamics
- A fractional-order model of COVID-19 considering the fear effect of the media and social networks on the community
- Multilayer networks with higher-order interaction reveal the impact of collective behavior on epidemic dynamics
- A multilayer network model of the coevolution of the spread of a disease and competing opinions
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