Controlling the spread of COVID-19 on college campuses

DOI10.3934/MBE.2021030MaRDI QIDQ1980100zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Molly Borowiak, Fayfay Ning, Justin Pei, Sarah Zhao, Hwai-Ray Tung, Rick Durrett

Publication date 3 September 2021

Published in Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.07293

zbMATH Keywords

basic reproduction numbercritical valueSIR epidemicPerron-Frobenius theoremhousehold model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: This research was done during the DOMath program at Duke University from May 18 to July 10, 2020. At the time, Duke and other universities across the country were wrestling with the question of how to safely welcome students back to campus in the Fall. Because of this, our project focused on using mathematical models to evaluate strategies to suppress the spread of the virus on campus, specifically in dorms and in classrooms. For dorms, we show that giving students single rooms rather than double rooms can substantially reduce virus spread. For classrooms, we show that moving classes with size above some cutoff online can make the basic reproduction number $R_0<1$, preventing a wide spread epidemic. The cutoff will depend on the contagiousness of the disease in classrooms.

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Cites work

• A Limit Theorem for Multidimensional Galton-Watson Processes
• A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
• Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks
• Epidemics and rumours in complex networks.
• Epidemics with two levels of mixing
• Random graph dynamics
• Simulating COVID-19 in a university environment
• Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis

Cited in

(3)

• Simulating COVID-19 in a university environment
• A hybrid stochastic model and its Bayesian identification for infectious disease screening in a university campus with application to massive COVID-19 screening at the university of Liège
• Modeling and global sensitivity analysis of strategies to mitigate COVID-19 transmission on a structured college campus

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