A shadowing-based inflation scheme for ensemble data assimilation

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2018.05.002MaRDI QIDQ2000278zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Thomas Bellsky, Lewis Mitchell

Publication date 28 June 2019

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.07011

zbMATH Keywords

data assimilationensemble methodschaotic dynamicsshadowingcovariance inflation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Abstract: Artificial ensemble inflation is a common technique in ensemble data assimilation, whereby the ensemble covariance is periodically increased in order to prevent deviation of the ensemble from the observations and possible ensemble collapse. This manuscript introduces a new form of covariance inflation for ensemble data assimilation based upon shadowing ideas from dynamical systems theory. We present results from a low order nonlinear chaotic system that supports using shadowing inflation, demonstrating that shadowing inflation is more robust to parameter tuning than standard multiplicative covariance inflation, outperforming in observation-sparse scenarios and often leading to longer forecast shadowing times.

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Cited in

(3)

• Shadowing-based data assimilation method for partially observed models
• Projected Shadowing-Based Data Assimilation
• DAFI: An Open-Source Framework for Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Field Inversion

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• EnKF

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