Largest projections for random walks and shortest curves in random mapping tori
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Abstract: We show that the largest subsurface projection distance between a marking and its image under the nth step of a random walk grows logarithmically in n, with probability approaching 1 as n tends to infinity. Our setup is general and also applies to (relatively) hyperbolic groups and to . We then use this result to prove Rivin's conjecture that for a random walk on the mapping class group, the shortest geodesic in the hyperbolic mapping torus has length on the order of .
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