Are models useful? Reflections on simple epidemic projection models and the Covid-19 pandemic

DOI10.1007/S00283-020-09997-7MaRDI QIDQ2019318zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Marc Artzrouni

Publication date 20 April 2021

Published in The Mathematical Intelligencer (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s00283-020-09997-7

zbMATH Keywords

Covid-19 pandemicdoubling timeepidemic modelmaximum incidence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

This paper concerns with epidemic projection models. First, the exponential model on total number of infections is introduced. In reality, the size of an epidemic cannot exceed the size of the entire population. To account for this and the fact that those infected run out of susceptibles to infect, then the logistic model is reviewed. To overcome the drawback of symmetry of the logistic function, the so-called Exo-r model, \(\dot{I}=r(t)I\), is introduced, where \(I(t)\) is the total number of infected at time \(t\). The focus is on the doubling time, maximum incidence, and the time to reach the maximum incidence. The total number of infections \(I_{\infty}=\lim_{t\to\infty}I(t)\) is also exploited. The model is fitted to data on infections in (mainland) China and deaths in the United States for the Covid-19 pandemic. In conclusion, simple models like this Exo-r model can plausibly capture a patchwork of complex epidemic unfolding heterogeneously in time and space.

Recommendations

• Modeling the COVID-19 spread, a case study of Egypt
• The doubling time analysis for modified infectious disease Richards model with applications to COVID-19 pandemic
• Generalized logistic equations in Covid-related epidemic models
• On COVID-19 modelling
• On a SIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 pandemic and the logistic equation

Cited in

(5)

• Modeling the COVID-19 spread, a case study of Egypt
• The doubling time analysis for modified infectious disease Richards model with applications to COVID-19 pandemic
• Measuring differences between phenomenological growth models applied to epidemiology
• Some investigations with a simple actuarial model for infections such as COVID-19
• Generalized logistic equations in Covid-related epidemic models

This page was built for publication: Are models useful? Reflections on simple epidemic projection models and the Covid-19 pandemic

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2019318)