Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India: a mathematical modeling approach

DOI10.1515/CMB-2020-0122MaRDI QIDQ2059289zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 13 December 2021

Published in Computational and Mathematical Biophysics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.11239

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Qualitative investigation and simulation of models involving functional-differential equations (34K60) PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences (35Q92) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a constant population into six compartments. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.

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Cited in

(1)

• Optimal control and bifurcation analysis of SEIHR model for COVID-19 with vaccination strategies and mask efficiency

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