Uncertainty quantification of a computer model for binary black hole formation

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1484zbMATH Open1498.62342arXiv2106.01552OpenAlexW3169088842MaRDI QIDQ2078270FDOQ2078270

Authors: Luyao Lin, Floor Broekgaarden, Ilya Mandel, Derek Bingham 

Publication date: 28 February 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, a fast and parallelizable method based on Gaussian Processes (GPs) is introduced to emulate computer models that simulate the formation of binary black holes (BBHs) through the evolution of pairs of massive stars. Two obstacles that arise in this application are the a priori unknown conditions of BBH formation and the large scale of the simulation data. We address them by proposing a local emulator which combines a GP classifier and a GP regression model. The resulting emulator can also be utilized in planning future computer simulations through a proposed criterion for sequential design. By propagating uncertainties of simulation input through the emulator, we are able to obtain the distribution of BBH properties under the distribution of physical parameters.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.01552

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zbMATH Keywords

computer experimentssequential designsurrogate modellocal approximate GP

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Sequential statistical design (62L05) Design of statistical experiments (62K99) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Black holes (83C57)

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Cited In (5)

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Galaxy formation: a Bayesian uncertainty analysis
• A Global-Local Approximation Framework for Large-Scale Gaussian Process Modeling
• Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output
• Vecchia-approximated Deep Gaussian Processes for Computer Experiments

Uses Software

• EGO
• FRK

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