Epidemic outbreaks with adaptive prevention on complex networks

DOI10.1016/J.CNSNS.2022.106877zbMATH Open1501.92192arXiv2203.15024OpenAlexW4295129439MaRDI QIDQ2094489FDOQ2094489

Authors: Diogo H. Silva, Celia Anteneodo, Silvio C. Ferreira 

Publication date: 28 October 2022

Published in: Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model, in which the epidemiological perception of the environment can adapt the behavior of susceptible individuals towards preventive behavior. {Two compartments of susceptible individuals are considered, to distinguish those that adopt or not prophylaxis attitudes.} Two rules, depending on local and global epidemic prevalence, for the spread of the epidemic in heterogeneous networks are investigated. We present the results of both heterogeneous mean-field theory and stochastic simulations. The former performs well for the global rule, but misses relevant outcomes of simulations in the local case. In simulations, only local awareness can significantly raise the epidemic threshold, delay the peak of prevalence, and reduce the outbreak size. Interestingly, we observed that increasing the local perception rate leads to less individuals recruited to the protected state, but still enhances the effectiveness in mitigating the outbreak. We also report that network heterogeneity substantially reduces the efficacy of local awareness mechanisms since hubs, the super-spreaders of the SIR dynamics, are little responsive to epidemic environments in the low epidemic prevalence regime. Our results indicate that strategies that improve the perception of who is socially very active can improve the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15024

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zbMATH Keywords

complex networksepidemic spreadingepidemic thresholdprophylaxis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Systems biology, networks (92C42)

Cites Work

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Cited In (6)

• Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics
• Traffic-driven epidemic spreading in community networks
• Reacting to outbreaks at neighboring localities
• Global stability and optimal control of epidemics in heterogeneously structured populations exhibiting adaptive behavior
• Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach
• Mitigation of epidemics in contact networks through optimal contact adaptation

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