The LAN property for McKean-Vlasov models in a mean-field regime

DOI10.1016/J.SPA.2022.10.002MaRDI QIDQ2105067zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 8 December 2022

Published in Stochastic Processes and their Applications (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.05932

zbMATH Keywords

maximum likelihood estimationparametric estimationinteracting particle systemsLAN propertyMcKean-Vlasov modelsstatistics and PDE

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators (62F12) Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Minimax procedures in statistical decision theory (62C20) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10)

Abstract: We establish the local asymptotic normality (LAN) property for estimating a multidimensional parameter in the drift of a system of $N$ interacting particles observed over a fixed time horizon in a mean-field regime $Nightarrowinfty$. By implementing the classical theory of Ibragimov and Hasminski, we obtain in particular sharp results for the maximum likelihood estimator that go beyond its simple asymptotic normality thanks to H'ajek's convolution theorem and strong controls of the likelihood process that yield asymptotic minimax optimality (up to constants). Our structural results shed some light to the accompanying nonlinear McKean-Vlasov experiment, and enable us to derive simple and explicit criteria to obtain identifiability and non-degeneracy of the Fisher information matrix. These conditions are also of interest for other recent studies on the topic of parametric inference for interacting diffusions.

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Cited in

(11)

• On the identifiability of nonlocal interaction kernels in first-order systems of interacting particles on Riemannian manifolds
• Parameter estimation of discretely observed interacting particle systems
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• Inference for ergodic McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations with polynomial interactions
• Learning theory for inferring interaction kernels in second-order interacting agent systems

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