Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2022.111337MaRDI QIDQ2109314zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Dominic G. Whittaker, Alejandra D. Herrera-Reyes, M. R. Owen, L. R. Band, G. R. Mirams, Kirsty J. Bolton, Maurice H. W. Hendrix, Simon Preston

Publication date 20 December 2022

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111337

zbMATH Keywords

epidemic modellinggeneration timemodel selectionnon-pharmaceutical interventionsparameter inferenceSARS-CoV-2uncertainty quantification

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cites work

• An adaptive Metropolis algorithm
• An exact and implementable computation of the final outbreak size distribution under Erlang distributed infectious period
• Generalizations of the `linear chain trick': incorporating more flexible dwell time distributions into mean field ODE models
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1324225 (Why is no real title available?)
• Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals
• Small-sample estimation of negative binomial dispersion, with applications to SAGE data

Cited in

(4)

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5176372 (Why is no real title available?)
• Inferring UK COVID‐19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: Were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?
• Dynamic analysis of a SIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and ratio dependent pulse control
• Genuine and spurious bistability in a simple epidemic model with waning immunity

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Uses Software

• CMA-ES

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