A Bayesian nonparametric method for detecting rapid changes in disease transmission

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2022.111351MaRDI QIDQ2109324zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Richard Creswell, Martin Robinson, Kris V. Parag, Chon Lok Lei, Ben Lambert, David J. Gavaghan

Publication date 20 December 2022

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111351

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian nonparametricsCOVID-19changepoint detectionepidemiologyoutbreaksreproduction number

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cites work

• A note on generation times in epidemic models
• Advanced Lectures on Machine Learning
• Bayesian non-parametrics and the probabilistic approach to modelling
• Combinatorial stochastic processes. Ecole d'Eté de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XXXII -- 2002.
• Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences
• On a nonparametric change point detection model in Markovian regimes
• The Indian buffet process: an introduction and review
• The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends
• The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution derived from a stable subordinator

Cited in

(10)

• Bayesian outbreak detection algorithm for monitoring reported cases of campylobacteriosis in Germany
• From Dynamical Processes to Likelihood Functions, An Application to Internet Surveillance Data for Influenza Like Illnesses
• Change time estimation uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems with applications to COVID‐19
• Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission
• Nonparametric inference for the reproductive rate in generalized compartmental models
• A three-state recursive sequential Bayesian algorithm for biosurveillance
• Detection of spatiotemporal changepoints: a generalised additive model approach
• Empirical quantification of predictive uncertainty due to model discrepancy by training with an ensemble of experimental designs: an application to ion channel kinetics
• A non-parametric method for determining epidemiological reproduction numbers
• Bayesian semi-parametric joint modeling of biomarker data with a latent changepoint: assessing the temporal performance of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing for paratuberculosis

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• EpiEstim

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