Small group forecasting using proportional-prize contests

DOI10.1007/S11238-021-09825-0MaRDI QIDQ2114566zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Fan Rao, Leonard Wolk, Ronald Peeters

Publication date 15 March 2022

Published in Theory and Decision (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-021-09825-0

zbMATH Keywords

experimentforecastingbehavioral mechanism designcontests

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Experimental work for problems pertaining to game theory, economics, and finance (91-05) Mechanism design theory (91B03)

Recommendations

• Contests with group size uncertainty: experimental evidence
• Optimal prize allocations in group contests
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• Shorter prediction intervals for anonymous individual assessments in group decision-making via pairwise comparisons
• Group contest success function: the heterogeneous individuals case
• Sharing the effort costs in group contests

Cites work

• Endogenous entry in contests
• Game-theory models in the allocation of advertising expenditures
• Learning and dropout in contests: an experimental approach
• The Promise of Prediction Contests

Cited in

(3)

• Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• The wisdom of competitive crowds

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Z-Tree
• ORSEE

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