Understanding dynamics of \textit{Plasmodium falciparum} gametocytes production: insights from an age-structured model

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2022.111056zbMATH Open1483.92128arXiv2012.06352OpenAlexW3111768127MaRDI QIDQ2116005FDOQ2116005

Arnaud Ducrot, Gaëtan Texier, Ramses Djidjou Demasse, Nicole Mideo

Publication date: 15 March 2022

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -- vectors of emph{Plasmodium} parasites -- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06352

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zbMATH Keywords

infectiousnessmalariawithin-host modelgametocytemiaparasitemia

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Qualitative investigation and simulation of models involving functional-differential equations (34K60) PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences (35Q92)

Cites Work

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Cited In (3)

• Male fecundity and optimal gametocyte sex ratios for \textit{Plasmodium falciparum} during incomplete fertilization
• Differential preferences for RBCs is key for Plasmodium species evolutionary diversity within human host
• On the necessity of accounting for age structure in human malaria transmission modeling

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