Term structure modeling under volatility uncertainty
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Publication:2120604
Abstract: In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian motion. The G-Brownian motion represents the uncertainty about the volatility. Within this framework, we derive a sufficient condition for the absence of arbitrage, known as the drift condition. In contrast to the traditional model, the drift condition consists of several equations and several market prices, termed market price of risk and market prices of uncertainty, respectively. The drift condition is still consistent with the classical one if there is no volatility uncertainty. Similar to the traditional model, the risk-neutral dynamics of the forward rate are completely determined by its diffusion term. The drift condition allows to construct arbitrage-free term structure models that are completely robust with respect to the volatility. In particular, we obtain robust versions of classical term structure models.
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Cited in
(5)- Reduced-form setting under model uncertainty with non-linear affine intensities
- Uncertain volatility and the risk-free synthesis of derivatives
- Generalized Feynman-Kac formula under volatility uncertainty
- Pricing interest rate derivatives under volatility uncertainty
- Volatility, risk modeling and utility
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