SEAIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2020.110394zbMATH Open1496.92103arXiv2005.11815OpenAlexW3094737818WikidataQ101456253 ScholiaQ101456253MaRDI QIDQ2128237FDOQ2128237

Authors: Lasko Basnarkov 

Publication date: 21 April 2022

Published in: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of symptoms, or even with total absence of them. The model is theoretically analyzed in continuous-time compartmental version and discrete-time version on random regular graphs and complex networks. We show analytically that there are relationships between the epidemic thresholds and the equations for the susceptible populations at the endemic equilibrium in all three versions, which hold when the epidemic is weak. We provide theoretical arguments that eigenvector centrality of a node approximately determines its risk to become infected.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.11815

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zbMATH Keywords

COVID-19complex networkseigenvector centralityepidemic spreadingJacobian matrix eigenvectorsSEAIR epidemic model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60)

Cites Work

• Complex networks: structure and dynamics
• Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
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• Collective dynamics of `small-world' networks
• Fundamentals of spreading processes in single and multilayer complex networks
• Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan
• Mathematical models in epidemiology

Cited In (16)

• Stability analysis and numerical simulations of the infection spread of epidemics as a reaction-diffusion model
• Threshold dynamics of a stochastic infectious disease model with vaccination age under saturated media coverage
• Simulating the spread of COVID-19 \textit{via} a spatially-resolved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased (SEIRD) model with heterogeneous diffusion
• A diffusive SEIR model for community transmission of Covid-19 epidemics: application to Brazil
• Economic epidemiological modelling: a progress report
• Epidemic spreading in wireless sensor networks with node sleep scheduling
• Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach
• Endemic state equivalence between non-Markovian SEIS and Markovian SIS model in complex networks
• A new method for solving fuzzy Bernoulli differential equation
• An explicit unconditionally stable scheme: application to diffusive COVID-19 epidemic model
• Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
• Generalized SEIR epidemic model for COVID-19 in a multipatch environment
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Influence of human behavior on COVID-19 dynamics based on a reaction-diffusion model
• Bistability in deterministic and stochastic SLIAR-type models with imperfect and waning vaccine protection
• Using the SEIR model to constrain the role of contaminated fomites in spreading an epidemic: an application to COVID-19 in the UK

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