Preelectoral polls variability: a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess the role of house effects with application to Italian elections

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1507zbMATH Open1498.62318OpenAlexW4220711775MaRDI QIDQ2135367FDOQ2135367

Authors: Domenico De Stefano, Francesco Pauli, Nicola Torelli 

Publication date: 6 May 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1214/21-aoas1507

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zbMATH Keywords

ANOVAfinite population varianceposterior predictive checkpreelectoral polls

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) History, political science (91F10) Analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA) (62J10) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

Cites Work

• Gaussian Markov Random Fields
• Bayesian data analysis.
• Analysis of variance -- why it is more important than ever. (With discussions and rejoinder)
• Fully Bayesian spline smoothing and intrinsic autoregressive priors
• A Bayesian Formulation of Exploratory Data Analysis and Goodness‐of‐fit Testing*
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
• Smoothing sample extremes with dynamic models
• Two simple examples for understanding posterior \(p\)-values whose distributions are far from unform
• Priors for Bayesian adaptive spline smoothing

Cited In (2)

• A revised Brown and Payne model of voting behaviour applied to the 2009 elections in Italy
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Uses Software

• R
• GMRFLib
• Stan
• BayesDA
• RStan

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