Preelectoral polls variability: a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess the role of house effects with application to Italian elections

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1507zbMath1498.62318OpenAlexW4220711775MaRDI QIDQ2135367

Domenico De Stefano, Nicola Torelli, Francesco Pauli

Publication date: 6 May 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1214/21-aoas1507

zbMATH Keywords

ANOVAfinite population varianceposterior predictive checkpreelectoral polls

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Bayesian inference (62F15) History, political science (91F10) Analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA) (62J10)

Uses Software

• R
• GMRFLib
• Stan
• BayesDA
• RStan

Cites Work

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• Two simple examples for understanding posterior \(p\)-values whose distributions are far from unform
• Priors for Bayesian adaptive spline smoothing
• Analysis of variance -- why it is more important than ever. (With discussions and rejoinder)
• Smoothing sample extremes with dynamic models
• Fully Bayesian spline smoothing and intrinsic autoregressive priors
• Gaussian Markov Random Fields
• A Bayesian Formulation of Exploratory Data Analysis and Goodness‐of‐fit Testing*
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States

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