Preelectoral polls variability: a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess the role of house effects with application to Italian elections

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1507MaRDI QIDQ2135367zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Domenico De Stefano, Francesco Pauli, Nicola Torelli

Publication date 6 May 2022

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1214/21-aoas1507

zbMATH Keywords

ANOVAfinite population varianceposterior predictive checkpreelectoral polls

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) History, political science (91F10) Analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA) (62J10) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 947414 (Why is no real title available?)
• A Bayesian Formulation of Exploratory Data Analysis and Goodness‐of‐fit Testing*
• Analysis of variance -- why it is more important than ever. (With discussions and rejoinder)
• Bayesian data analysis.
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
• Fully Bayesian spline smoothing and intrinsic autoregressive priors
• Gaussian Markov Random Fields
• Priors for Bayesian adaptive spline smoothing
• Smoothing sample extremes with dynamic models
• Two simple examples for understanding posterior \(p\)-values whose distributions are far from unform

Cited in

(4)

• Estimation of underrepresented strata in preelection polls: a comparative study
• Dynamic Bayesian analysis for irregularly and incompletely observed contingency tables
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1216595 (Why is no real title available?)
• A revised Brown and Payne model of voting behaviour applied to the 2009 elections in Italy

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• R
• GMRFLib
• Stan
• BayesDA
• RStan

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