A benchmark model for fixed-target Arctic sea ice forecasting

DOI10.1016/J.ECONLET.2022.110478zbMATH Open1491.86005arXiv2101.10359OpenAlexW4226068917WikidataQ114185962 ScholiaQ114185962MaRDI QIDQ2158362FDOQ2158362

Maximilian Göbel, Francis X. Diebold

Publication date: 26 July 2022

Published in: Economics Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359

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zbMATH Keywords

climate changeforecast evaluationclimate predictionclimate forecasting

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Climate science and climate modeling (86A08) Geostatistics (86A32) Glaciology (86A40)

Cites Work

• Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife
• MULTISTEP PREDICTION IN AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES
• Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections

Cited In (3)

• Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections
• Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts
• Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: a structural econometric approach to estimation and testing

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