A benchmark model for fixed-target Arctic sea ice forecasting

DOI10.1016/J.ECONLET.2022.110478MaRDI QIDQ2158362zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Francis X. Diebold, Maximilian Göbel

Publication date 26 July 2022

Published in Economics Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359

zbMATH Keywords

climate changeforecast evaluationclimate predictionclimate forecasting

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Climate science and climate modeling (86A08) Geostatistics (86A32) Glaciology (86A40)

Abstract: We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.

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Cites work

• Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife
• Multistep prediction in autoregressive processes
• Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections

Cited in

(5)

• Probabilistic forecasting of the Arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling
• Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts
• Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections
• Modelling changes in Arctic sea ice cover: an application of generalized and inflated beta and gamma densities
• Polar amplification in a moist energy balance model: a structural econometric approach to estimation and testing

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