Management strategies for run-of-river hydropower plants: an optimal switching approach

DOI10.1007/S11081-021-09683-3MaRDI QIDQ2168644zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Marcus Olofsson, Thomas Önskog, Niklas L. P. Lundström

Publication date 26 August 2022

Published in Optimization and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.10554

zbMATH Keywords

optimizationstochastic differential equationvariational inequalityproduction planningpartial differential equationriver flow model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Inequalities applied to PDEs involving derivatives, differential and integral operators, or integrals (35A23) Initial value problems for second-order parabolic systems (35K45) PDEs in connection with control and optimization (35Q93) PDEs with randomness, stochastic partial differential equations (35R60) Dynamic programming in optimal control and differential games (49L20) Applications of optimal control and differential games (49N90) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30) Optimal stochastic control (93E20)

Abstract: The mathematical theory for optimal switching is by now relatively well developed, but the number of concrete applications of this theoretical framework remains few. In this paper, we bridge parts of this gap by applying optimal switching theory to a set of production planning problems related to hydropower plants. In particular, we study two different cases involving small run-of-river hydropower plants and show how optimal switching can be used to create fully automatic production schemes in these cases, with non-zero cost of switching between different states of production. Along the way of deriving these schemes, we also create a model for the random flow of water based on stochastic differential equations and fit this model to historical data. This stochastic flow model, which should be of independent interest, mimics the long term seasonal behaviour of the flow while still allowing for stochastic fluctuations and can incorporate a given forecast to damp the impact of such fluctuations in near time. We benchmark the performance of our model using actual flow data from a small river in Sweden and find that our production scheme lies close to the optimal, within 2 % and 5 %, respectively, in a long term investigation of the two plants considered.

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Cited in

(5)

• System of nonlinear second-order parabolic partial differential equations with interconnected obstacles and oblique derivative boundary conditions on non-smooth time-dependent domains
• A simple model on streamflow management with a dynamic risk measure
• Systems of fully nonlinear degenerate elliptic obstacle problems with Dirichlet boundary conditions
• Stochastic streamflow and dissolved silica dynamics with application to the worst-case long-run evaluation of water environment
• A Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Optimal Switching Problems with Jumps in Energy Markets

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