Modelling of lung cancer survival data for critical illness insurances

DOI10.1007/S10260-019-00449-XzbMATH Open1437.62370arXiv1602.08696OpenAlexW2963597020MaRDI QIDQ2176349FDOQ2176349

Authors: Beata Zmyślona, Joanna Dębicka 

Publication date: 4 May 2020

Published in: Statistical Methods and Applications (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We derive a general multiple state model for critical illness insurances. In contrast to the classical model, we take into account that the probability of death for a dread disease sufferer may depend on the duration of the disease, and the payment of benefits associated with a severe disease depends not only on the diagnosis but also on the disease stage. We apply the introduced model to the analysis of a critical illness insurance against the risk of lung cancer. Based on the real data for the Lower Silesian Voivodship in Poland, we estimate the transition matrix, related to the discrete-time Markov model. The obtained probabilistic structure of the model can be directly used to cost not only critical illness insurances and life insurances with accelerated death benefits option, but also to viatical settlement contracts.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.08696

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zbMATH Keywords

Markov chainmultiple state modellung cancersurvival modelmorbidity modelmultiple increment-decrement table

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Reliability and life testing (62N05) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Cites Work

• Applied Semi-Markov Processes
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• Semi-Markov Risk Models for Finance, Insurance and Reliability
• Health insurance. Basic actuarial models
• Some reflections on different disability models

Cited In (3)

• Pricing critical illness insurance from prevalence rates: Gompertz versus Weibull
• Modelling critical illness claim diagnosis rates I: methodology
• Modelling critical illness claim diagnosis rates II: results

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