Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models

DOI10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00266-2MaRDI QIDQ2177452zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Steven Riley, Christl A. Donnelly, Neil M. Ferguson

Publication date 6 May 2020

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-5193(03)00266-2

zbMATH Keywords

inferencemacroparasitemoment closuresimulation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

This paper studies robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macro-parasite models. The model is Markovian with triple of random variables \(I(t)\), \(L(t)\) and \(M(t)\), where \(I\) is the hosts experience of infection, \(L\) is the number of three-stage larvae and \(M\) is the number of mature parasites. The paper explores different approaches for estimating the parameters of simple non-linear stochastic dynamical models. Influences studied using simulation including a stochastic goodness-of-fit statistic, maximization of goodness-of-fit and confidence bounds and goodness-of-fit \(p\) values. Moment equations and moment closure assumptions have been studied. Robust estimation techniques are shown to give greater biological insight. The methods developed here are tested using data from a lymphatic filariasis animal model.

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Cited in

(8)

• Structural and practical identifiability analysis of outbreak models
• Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications
• On parameter estimation in population models. III: Time-inhomogeneous processes and observation error
• Stochastic models of host-macroparasite interaction
• Bayesian design of experiments for intractable likelihood models using coupled auxiliary models and multivariate emulation
• Novel bivariate moment-closure approximations
• Modeling the contribution of antibody attack rates to single and dual helminth infections in a natural system
• Mathematical Modelling of Parasite Dynamics: A Stochastic Simulation-Based Approach and Parameter Estimation via Modified Sequential-Type Approximate Bayesian Computation

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