The end time of SIS epidemics driven by random walks on edge-transitive graphs

DOI10.1007/S10955-020-02547-7zbMATH Open1434.92031arXiv1903.09178OpenAlexW2923431693MaRDI QIDQ2183153FDOQ2183153

Giulio Iacobelli, V. Shneer, Daniel R. Figueiredo

Publication date: 26 May 2020

Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Network epidemics is a ubiquitous model that can represent different phenomena and finds applications in various domains. Among its various characteristics, a fundamental question concerns the time when an epidemic stops propagating. We investigate this characteristic on a SIS epidemic induced by agents that move according to independent continuous time random walks on a finite graph: Agents can either be infected (I) or susceptible (S), and infection occurs when two agents with different epidemic states meet in a node. After a random recovery time, an infected agent returns to state S and can be infected again. The End of Epidemic (EoE) denotes the first time where all agents are in state S, since after this moment no further infections can occur and the epidemic stops. For the case of two agents on edge-transitive graphs, we characterize EoE as a function of the network structure by relating the Laplace transform of EoE to the Laplace transform of the meeting time of two random walks. Interestingly, this analysis shows a separation between the effect of network structure and epidemic dynamics. We then study the asymptotic behavior of EoE (asymptotically in the size of the graph) under different parameter scalings, identifying regimes where EoE converges in distribution to a proper random variable or to infinity. We also highlight the impact of different graph structures on EoE, characterizing it under complete graphs, complete bipartite graphs, and rings.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.09178

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zbMATH Keywords

random walksSIS modelnetwork epidemics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30) Anomalous diffusion models (subdiffusion, superdiffusion, continuous-time random walks, etc.) (60K50)

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Cited In (2)

• A computational framework for evaluating the role of mobility on the propagation of epidemics on point processes
• Migration–contagion processes

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