The stratified micro-randomized trial design: sample size considerations for testing nested causal effects of time-varying treatments

DOI10.1214/19-AOAS1293zbMATH Open1446.62271arXiv1711.03587OpenAlexW3037283170WikidataQ126077735 ScholiaQ126077735MaRDI QIDQ2194456FDOQ2194456

Authors: Walter Dempsey, Peng Liao, Santosh Kumar, Susan A. Murphy 

Publication date: 26 August 2020

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Technological advancements in the field of mobile devices and wearable sensors have helped overcome obstacles in the delivery of care, making it possible to deliver behavioral treatments anytime and anywhere. Increasingly the delivery of these treatments is triggered by predictions of risk or engagement which may have been impacted by prior treatments. Furthermore the treatments are often designed to have an impact on individuals over a span of time during which subsequent treatments may be provided. Here we discuss our work on the design of a mobile health smoking cessation experimental study in which two challenges arose. First the randomizations to treatment should occur at times of stress and second the outcome of interest accrues over a period that may include subsequent treatment. To address these challenges we develop the "stratified micro-randomized trial," in which each individual is randomized among treatments at times determined by predictions constructed from outcomes to prior treatment and with randomization probabilities depending on these outcomes. We define both conditional and marginal proximal treatment effects. Depending on the scientific goal these effects may be defined over a period of time during which subsequent treatments may be provided. We develop a primary analysis method and associated sample size formulae for testing these effects.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03587

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zbMATH Keywords

mobile healthnested causal effectssequential randomizationstratified micro-randomized trialsweighted-centered least-squares method

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Sampling theory, sample surveys (62D05) Sequential statistical analysis (62L10) Response surface designs (62K20)

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