Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: anatomy of an inference problem

DOI10.1016/J.JECONOM.2020.04.041MaRDI QIDQ2224908zbMATHOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Charles F. Manski, Francesca Molinari

Publication date 4 February 2021

Published in Journal of Econometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06178

zbMATH Keywords

missing dataepidemiologypartial identificationnovel coronavirus

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that the infection fatality rate in Italy is substantially lower than reported.

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Cites work

• Monotone Instrumental Variables: With an Application to the Returns to Schooling
• Partial identification of probability distributions.

Cited in

(28)

• Regression Models for Understanding COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics With Incomplete Data
• Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: social distancing intensity and duration
• A statistical model for the dynamics of COVID‐19 infections and their case detection ratio in 2020
• A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel
• Stability analysis and numerical simulation of dynamic and fractional SEIRD models for spread of nCOVID-19 in Turkey
• A note on estimation of the infection rate
• Bayesian adjustment for preferential testing in estimating infection fatality rates, as motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic
• Universal Approximators: New Approach for the Curve Fit of the COVID-19 Infected Population
• Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK
• Bridging the Covid-19 data and the epidemiological model using the time-varying parameter SIRD model
• Social distancing game and insurance investment in a pandemic
• Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection
• Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: an application to coronavirus
• Optimal management of an epidemic: lockdown, vaccine and value of life
• An algorithm for the robust estimation of the COVID-19 pandemic's population by considering undetected individuals.
• Threshold dynamics of a stochastic SIHR epidemic model of COVID-19 with general population-size dependent contact rate
• Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic
• Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network
• Dynamic analysis of a stochastic SEQIR model and application in the COVID-19 pandemic
• A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data
• Interpreting SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, deaths, and fatality rate -- making a case for standardized reporting to improve communication
• Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: an application to COVID-19
• Persistence and extinction criteria of Covid-19 pandemic: India as a case study
• Stochastic analysis of COVID-19 by a SEIR model with Lévy noise
• Assessing COVID-19 Prevalence in Austria with Infection Surveys and Case Count Data as Auxiliary Information
• Policy evaluation during a pandemic
• Measuring diagnostic test performance using imperfect reference tests: a partial identification approach
• Nonparametric estimation of stochastic frontier models with weak separability

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