Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: anatomy of an inference problem

DOI10.1016/J.JECONOM.2020.04.041zbMATH Open1464.62464arXiv2004.06178OpenAlexW3019384097WikidataQ94592523 ScholiaQ94592523MaRDI QIDQ2224908FDOQ2224908

Authors: Charles F. Manski, Francesca Molinari 

Publication date: 4 February 2021

Published in: Journal of Econometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that the infection fatality rate in Italy is substantially lower than reported.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06178

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zbMATH Keywords

missing dataepidemiologypartial identificationnovel coronavirus

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

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• Partial identification of probability distributions.
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Cited In (28)

• Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection
• Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic
• Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network
• Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: an application to COVID-19
• Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK
• Bridging the Covid-19 data and the epidemiological model using the time-varying parameter SIRD model
• Social distancing game and insurance investment in a pandemic
• An algorithm for the robust estimation of the COVID-19 pandemic's population by considering undetected individuals.
• Threshold dynamics of a stochastic SIHR epidemic model of COVID-19 with general population-size dependent contact rate
• A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data
• Stability analysis and numerical simulation of dynamic and fractional SEIRD models for spread of nCOVID-19 in Turkey
• Bayesian adjustment for preferential testing in estimating infection fatality rates, as motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic
• Optimal management of an epidemic: lockdown, vaccine and value of life
• Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: social distancing intensity and duration
• Policy evaluation during a pandemic
• Stochastic analysis of COVID-19 by a SEIR model with Lévy noise
• Nonparametric estimation of stochastic frontier models with weak separability
• Assessing COVID-19 Prevalence in Austria with Infection Surveys and Case Count Data as Auxiliary Information
• Regression Models for Understanding COVID-19 Epidemic Dynamics With Incomplete Data
• Universal Approximators: New Approach for the Curve Fit of the COVID-19 Infected Population
• Dynamic analysis of a stochastic SEQIR model and application in the COVID-19 pandemic
• A note on estimation of the infection rate
• Measuring diagnostic test performance using imperfect reference tests: a partial identification approach
• Interpreting SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, deaths, and fatality rate -- making a case for standardized reporting to improve communication
• Persistence and extinction criteria of Covid-19 pandemic: India as a case study
• A hybrid compartmental model with a case study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel
• A statistical model for the dynamics of COVID‐19 infections and their case detection ratio in 2020
• Time varying Markov process with partially observed aggregate data: an application to coronavirus

Uses Software

• GitHub

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