Parameter estimation and prediction of COVID-19 epidemic turning point and ending time of a case study on SIR/SQAIR epidemic models

DOI10.1155/2020/1465923MaRDI QIDQ2229314zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Amir Hossein Amiri Mehra, Mohsen Shafieirad, Zohreh Abbasi, Iman Zamani

Publication date 23 February 2021

Published in Computational \& Mathematical Methods in Medicine (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1465923

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: In this paper, the SIR epidemiological model for the COVID-19 with unknown parameters is considered in the first strategy. Three curves \((S, I\), and \(R)\) are fitted to the real data of South Korea, based on a detailed analysis of the actual data of South Korea, taken from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). Using the least square method and minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the actual data, unknown parameters, like the transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate, are estimated. The goodness of fit model is investigated with two criteria (SSE and RMSE), and the uncertainty range of the estimated parameters is also presented. Also, using the obtained determined model, the possible ending time and the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States are predicted. Due to the lack of treatment and vaccine, in the next strategy, a new group called quarantined people is added to the proposed model. Also, a hidden state, including asymptomatic individuals, which is very common in COVID-19, is considered to make the model more realistic and closer to the real world. Then, the SIR model is developed into the SQAIR model. The delay in the recovery of the infected person is also considered as an unknown parameter. Like the previous steps, the possible ending time and the turning point in the United States are predicted. The model obtained in each strategy for South Korea is compared with the actual data from KDCA to prove the accuracy of the estimation of the parameters.

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Cites work

• COVID-19: development of a robust mathematical model and simulation package with consideration for ageing population and time delay for control action and resusceptibility
• Identifying the number of unreported cases in SIR epidemic models
• Observer-based adaptive PI sliding mode control of developed uncertain SEIAR influenza epidemic model considering dynamic population
• Parameter estimation in epidemic models: simplified formulas
• Stability analysis and observer design for discrete-time SEIR epidemic models

Cited in

(7)

• Inversion of a SIR-based model: a critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
• A multi-strain epidemic model for COVID-19 with infected and asymptomatic cases: application to French data
• Predicting COVID-19 pandemic endpoint in some sub-Saharan African and European countries
• An optimal control technique for epidemiological model with limited vaccination supply
• Stability analysis of an epidemic model with vaccination and time delay
• Dynamic behaviors for fractional epidemiological model featuring vaccination and quarantine compartments
• Parameter estimation for stochastic SIR model

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