Classification of asymptotic behavior in a stochastic SEIR epidemic model
This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SEIR epidemic model described as \(dS=(\Lambda-\beta S I-\mu S)dt+\sigma_1SdB_1\), \(dE=(\beta SI-(\varepsilon+\mu)E)dt+\sigma_2EdB_2\), \(dI=(\varepsilon E-(\mu+\gamma+\alpha)I)dt+\sigma_3IdB_3\), \(dR=(\gamma I-\mu R)dt+\sigma_4RdB_4\), where \(S, E, I, R\) are the number of susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered population, respectively. The factors \(\Lambda, \beta, \mu,\varepsilon,\gamma,\alpha\) are positive and \(B_k\) for \(k=1,\cdots, 4\) are independent standard Brownian motions. It is shown \(\lambda\) is a threshold, where \(\lambda<0\) indicates the disease will decay at an exponential rate and \(\lambda>0\) indicates the transition probabilities converge to an invariant measure. It is shown the convergence speed is of a polynomial.
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