Simultaneous inference of periods and period-luminosity relations for Mira variable stars

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1440zbMATH Open1478.62379OpenAlexW3180334426MaRDI QIDQ2245144FDOQ2245144

Authors Shiyuan He, Zhenfeng Lin, Wenlong Yuan, Lucas M. Macri, Jianhua Z. Huang 

Publication date 15 November 2021

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.02938

zbMATH Keywords

variational inferenceastrostatisticshierarchical Bayesian modelingMira variables

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Galactic and stellar dynamics (85A05)

Abstract: The Period--Luminosity relation (PLR) of Mira variable stars is an important tool to determine astronomical distances. The common approach of estimating the PLR is a two-step procedure that first estimates the Mira periods and then runs a linear regression of magnitude on log period. When the light curves are sparse and noisy, the accuracy of period estimation decreases and can suffer from aliasing effects. Some methods improve accuracy by incorporating complex model structures at the expense of significant computational costs. Another drawback of existing methods is that they only provide point estimation without proper estimation of uncertainty. To overcome these challenges, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously models the quasi-periodic variations for a collection of Mira light curves while estimating their common PLR. By borrowing strengths through the PLR, our method automatically reduces the aliasing effect, improves the accuracy of period estimation, and is capable of characterizing the estimation uncertainty. We develop a scalable stochastic variational inference algorithm for computation that can effectively deal with the multimodal posterior of period. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulations, and an application to observations of Miras in the Local Group galaxy M33. Without using ad-hoc period correction tricks, our method achieves a distance estimate of M33 that is consistent with published work. Our method also shows superior robustness to downsampling of the light curves.

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Cites Work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6377992 (Why is no real title available?)
• An introduction to variational methods for graphical models
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Cited In (2)

• Pulsation mode and period-luminosity relation of Mira variables
• Title not available (Why is no real title available?)

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