A Bayesian semiparametric Jolly-Seber model with individual heterogeneity: an application to migratory mallards at stopover

DOI10.1214/20-AOAS1421zbMATH Open1478.62346arXiv1811.01619OpenAlexW3181126545MaRDI QIDQ2245159FDOQ2245159

Authors: Guohui Wu, Scott H. Holan, Alexis Avril, Jonas Waldenström 

Publication date: 15 November 2021

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We propose a Bayesian hierarchical Jolly-Seber model that can account for individual heterogeneity in departure and the dependence of arrival time on covariates. Additionally, our model provides a semiparametric functional form for modeling capture probabilities. The model is flexible and can be used to estimate the stopover duration and stopover population size, which are key to stopover duration analysis. From the modeling perspective, our model allows for individual heterogeneity in departure due to a continuous intrinsic factor that varies with time and individual. A stochastic process is considered to model the change of this intrinsic factor over time. Moreover, our model links extrinsic factors to capture probabilities and arrival time. Consequently, our proposed model enables us to draw inference about the impacts of the intrinsic factor on departure, and extrinsic factors on both capture outcome and arrival time. Through the use of a semiparametric model for capture probabilities, we allow the data to suggest the functional relationship between extrinsic factors and capture probabilities rather than relying on an imposed parametric model. By using data augmentation, we develop a well customized Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is free of tuning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example of stopover duration analysis for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) studied during fall migration in Sweden.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.01619

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zbMATH Keywords

capture-recaptureOrnstein-Uhlenbeck processindividual heterogeneitylow-rank thin-plate splinesstopover duration analysis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Biological rhythms and synchronization (92B25)

Cites Work

• Semiparametric Regression
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• Explicit estimates from capture-recapture data with both death and immigration-stochastic model
• A note on the multiple-recapture census
• Full open population capture-recapture models with individual covariates
• Bayesian model discrimination for multiple strata capture-recapture data
• A General Methodology for the Analysis of Capture-Recapture Experiments in Open Populations
• Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark-resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

Cited In (1)

• Finite mixtures in capture-recapture surveys for modeling residency patterns in marine wildlife populations

Uses Software

• R
• CODA
• WinBUGS
• SemiPar
• OEIS

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