Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model
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Publication:2258564
Abstract: Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing countries without well-functioning vital registration systems, estimating the U5MR is challenging due to limited data availability and data quality issues. We describe a Bayesian penalized B-spline regression model for assessing levels and trends in the U5MR for all countries in the world, whereby biases in data series are estimated through the inclusion of a multilevel model to improve upon the limitations of current methods. B-spline smoothing parameters are also estimated through a multilevel model. Improved spline extrapolations are obtained through logarithmic pooling of the posterior predictive distribution of country-specific changes in spline coefficients with observed changes on the global level. The proposed model is able to flexibly capture changes in U5MR over time, gives point estimates and credible intervals reflecting potential biases in data series and performs reasonably well in out-of-sample validation exercises. It has been accepted by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to generate estimates for all member countries.
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Cites work
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- Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model
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Cited in
(13)- Bayesian estimation of population-level trends in measures of health status
- Child mortality estimation incorporating summary birth history data
- A flexible Bayesian framework to estimate age- and cause-specific child mortality over time from sample registration data
- Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison
- Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model
- Prediction intervals for penalized longitudinal models with multisource summary measures: an application to childhood malnutrition
- Space-time modeling of child mortality at the Admin-2 level in a low and middle income countries context
- A Bayesian approach to the global estimation of maternal mortality
- Space-time smoothing of complex survey data: small area estimation for child mortality
- Migration bias in indirect estimates of regional childhood mortality levels
- Estimating causes of maternal death in data-sparse contexts
- Estimating the stillbirth rate for 195 countries using a Bayesian sparse regression model with temporal smoothing
- Bias correction in clustered underreported data
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