Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS768zbMATH Open1454.62309arXiv1309.1602OpenAlexW3099916863WikidataQ57200031 ScholiaQ57200031MaRDI QIDQ2258564FDOQ2258564

Leontine Alkema, Jin Rou New

Publication date: 26 February 2015

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing countries without well-functioning vital registration systems, estimating the U5MR is challenging due to limited data availability and data quality issues. We describe a Bayesian penalized B-spline regression model for assessing levels and trends in the U5MR for all countries in the world, whereby biases in data series are estimated through the inclusion of a multilevel model to improve upon the limitations of current methods. B-spline smoothing parameters are also estimated through a multilevel model. Improved spline extrapolations are obtained through logarithmic pooling of the posterior predictive distribution of country-specific changes in spline coefficients with observed changes on the global level. The proposed model is able to flexibly capture changes in U5MR over time, gives point estimates and credible intervals reflecting potential biases in data series and performs reasonably well in out-of-sample validation exercises. It has been accepted by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to generate estimates for all member countries.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.1602

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian hierarchical modellogarithmic poolingMillennium Development Goal 4penalized B-spline regression modelunder-five mortality rateUnited Nations Interagency Group for Child Estimation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Cites Work

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Cited In (11)

• Child mortality estimation incorporating summary birth history data
• A flexible Bayesian framework to estimate age- and cause-specific child mortality over time from sample registration data
• Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison
• Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model
• Prediction intervals for penalized longitudinal models with multisource summary measures: an application to childhood malnutrition
• Space-time modeling of child mortality at the Admin-2 level in a low and middle income countries context
• A Bayesian approach to the global estimation of maternal mortality
• Migration bias in indirect estimates of regional childhood mortality levels
• Space-time smoothing of complex survey data: small area estimation for child mortality
• Estimating causes of maternal death in data-sparse contexts
• Bias correction in clustered underreported data

Uses Software

• JAGS
• Gibbsit

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