Statistical methods for automated drug susceptibility testing: Bayesian minimum inhibitory concentration prediction from growth curves

DOI10.1214/08-AOAS217zbMATH Open1166.62087arXiv0908.2858OpenAlexW3103269355MaRDI QIDQ2270670FDOQ2270670

Yanyan Li

Publication date: 29 July 2009

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Determination of the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of a drug that prevents microbial growth is an important step for managing patients with infections. In this paper we present a novel probabilistic approach that accurately estimates MICs based on a panel of multiple curves reflecting features of bacterial growth. We develop a probabilistic model for determining whether a given dilution of an antimicrobial agent is the MIC given features of the growth curves over time. Because of the potentially large collection of features, we utilize Bayesian model selection to narrow the collection of predictors to the most important variables. In addition to point estimates of MICs, we are able to provide posterior probabilities that each dilution is the MIC based on the observed growth curves. The methods are easily automated and have been incorporated into the Becton--Dickinson PHOENIX automated susceptibility system that rapidly and accurately classifies the resistance of a large number of microorganisms in clinical samples. Over seventy-five studies to date have shown this new method provides improved estimation of MICs over existing approaches.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0908.2858

zbMATH Keywords

model selectionBIClogistic regressionBayesdecision theorymodel uncertainty

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Cites Work

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Cited In (1)

• An interpretable classification method for predicting drug resistance in \(M. tuberculosis\)

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