An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling

DOI10.1007/S13194-018-0244-2zbMATH Open1428.86011arXiv1706.07528OpenAlexW3098066581MaRDI QIDQ2289722FDOQ2289722

Authors: Lukas Nabergall, Alejandro Navas, Eric Winsberg 

Publication date: 24 January 2020

Published in: European Journal for Philosophy of Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper deals with the question of whether uncertainty regarding model structure, especially in climate modeling, exhibits a kind of "chaos." Do small changes in model structure, in other words, lead to large variations in ensemble predictions? More specifically, does model error destroy forecast skill faster than the ordinary or "classical" chaos inherent in the real-world attractor? In some cases, the answer to this question seems to be "yes." But how common is this state of affairs? And are there precise mathematical results that can help us answer this question? We examine some efforts in the literature to answer this last question in the affirmative and find them to be unconvincing.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.07528

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zbMATH Keywords

chaosmodelingstructural stabilityclimate sciencehawkmoth effect

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Climate science and climate modeling (86A08) Strange attractors, chaotic dynamics of systems with hyperbolic behavior (37D45)

Cites Work

• The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments
• What Are the New Implications of Chaos for Unpredictability?
• The real butterfly effect

Cited In (1)

• Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model

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