Probabilistic modeling and global sensitivity analysis for CO₂ storage in geological formations: a spectral approach
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Publication:2294969
Abstract: This work focuses on the simulation of storage in deep underground formations under uncertainty and seeks to understand the impact of uncertainties in reservoir properties on leakage. To simulate the process, a non-isothermal two-phase two-component flow system with equilibrium phase exchange is used. Since model evaluations are computationally intensive, instead of traditional Monte Carlo methods, we rely on polynomial chaos (PC) expansions for representation of the stochastic model response. A non-intrusive approach is used to determine the PC coefficients. We establish the accuracy of the PC representations within a reasonable error threshold through systematic convergence studies. In addition to characterizing the distributions of model observables, we compute probabilities of excess leakage. Moreover, we consider the injection rate as a design parameter and compute an optimum injection rate that ensures that the risk of excess pressure buildup at the leaky well remains below acceptable levels. We also provide a comprehensive analysis of sensitivities of leakage, where we compute the contributions of the random parameters, and their interactions, to the variance by computing first, second, and total order Sobol' indices.
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Cited in
(9)- A step function density profile model for the convective stability of CO\(_2\) geological sequestration
- Robustness analysis of an uncertain computational model to predict well integrity for geologic \(\mathrm{CO}_{2}\) sequestration
- A probabilistic collocation eulerian-Lagrangian localized adjoint method on sparse grids for assessing \(\operatorname{CO}_2\) leakage through wells in randomly heterogeneous porous media
- Structure exploiting methods for fast uncertainty quantification in multiphase flow through heterogeneous media
- Application of arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion for global sensitivity analysis of mineral dissolution and precipitation modeling under geologic carbon storage conditions
- Estimate CO\(_{2}\) storage capacity of the Johansen formation: numerical investigations beyond the benchmarking exercise
- Sensitivity-driven adaptive construction of reduced-space surrogates
- Vertically integrated dual-continuum models for CO\(_2\) injection in fractured geological formations
- Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario
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