On strong stationary times and approximation of Markov chain hitting times by geometric sums

DOI10.1016/J.SPL.2019.02.017zbMATH Open1464.60072arXiv1812.07896OpenAlexW2963771336MaRDI QIDQ2322604FDOQ2322604

Authors: Fraser Daly 

Publication date: 5 September 2019

Published in: Statistics \& Probability Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider a discrete time, ergodic Markov chain with finite state space which is started from stationarity. Fill and Lyzinski (2014) showed that, in some cases, the hitting time for a given state may be represented as a sum of a geometric number of IID random variables. We extend this result by giving explicit bounds on the distance between any such hitting time and an appropriately chosen geometric sum, along with other related approximations. The compounding random variable in our approximating geometric sum is a strong stationary time for the underlying Markov chain; we also discuss the approximation and construction of this distribution.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07896

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zbMATH Keywords

stochastic orderingMarkov chainspassage timestrong stationary timegeometric sum

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inequalities; stochastic orderings (60E15) Central limit and other weak theorems (60F05) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Approximations to statistical distributions (nonasymptotic) (62E17)

Cites Work

• Markov chains and mixing times. With a chapter on ``Coupling from the past by James G. Propp and David B. Wilson.
• Strong uniform times and finite random walks
• Strong stationary duality for Möbius monotone Markov chains
• Strong stationary times via a new form of duality
• On hitting times and fastest strong stationary times for skip-free and more general chains
• Hitting times and interlacing eigenvalues: a stochastic approach using intertwinings
• Shift-coupling and convergence rates of ergodic averages
• Stein's method for compound geometric approximation

Cited In (3)

• First hitting problems for Markov chains that converge to a geometric Brownian motion
• Hitting time and mixing time bounds of Stein's factors
• Improved methods of hazard rate function calculation using saddlepoint approximations

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