Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases
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Abstract: The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge on disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between the basic reproduction numbers of two network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem of proving their existences in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the reproduction number is not monotonically increasing or decreasing with the extinction threshold. Key parameters in predicting uncertainty of extinction thresholds are identified using Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.
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Cited in
(9)- Basic properties and qualitative dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with vector stages and vertical transmission
- Reducing mosquito-borne disease outbreak size: the relative importance of contact and transmissibility in a network model
- The control of vector-borne disease epidemics
- A stochastic model for malaria transmission dynamics
- A new method for calculating net reproductive rate from graph reduction with applications to the control of invasive species
- The network level reproduction number for infectious diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission
- Relations between deterministic and stochastic thresholds for disease extinction in continuous- and discrete-time infectious disease models
- Feedback pinning control of collective behaviors aroused by epidemic spread on complex networks
- Extinction in host-vector infection models and the role of heterogeneity
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