On the adjustment coefficient, drawdowns and Lundberg-type bounds for random walk

DOI10.1214/08-AAP567zbMATH Open1235.60048arXiv0807.3506MaRDI QIDQ2389601FDOQ2389601

Authors: Isaac Meilijson 

Publication date: 17 July 2009

Published in: The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider a random walk whose (light-tailed) increments have positive mean. Lower and upper bounds are provided for the expected maximal value of the random walk until it experiences a given drawdown d. These bounds, related to the Calmar ratio in Finance, are of the form (exp{alpha d}-1)/alpha and (K exp{alpha d}-1)/alpha for some K>1, in terms of the adjustment coefficient alpha (E[exp{-alpha X}]=1) of the insurance risk literature. Its inverse 1/alpha has been recently derived by Aumann and Serrano as an index of riskiness of the random variable X. This article also complements the Lundberg exponential stochastic upper bound and the Cramer-Lundberg approximation for the expected minimum of the random walk, with an exponential stochastic lower bound. The tail probability bounds are of the form C exp{-alpha x} and exp{-alpha x} respectively, for some 1/K < C < 1. Our treatment of the problem involves Skorokhod embeddings of random walks in Martingales, especially via the Azema-Yor and Dubins stopping times, adapted from standard Brownian Motion to exponential Martingales.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0807.3506

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zbMATH Keywords

random walkSkorokhod embeddingsdrawdownCalmar ratioCrámer-Lundberg

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Sums of independent random variables; random walks (60G50) Martingales with continuous parameter (60G44)

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Cited In (4)

• A wealth-requirement axiomatization of riskiness
• Economic indices of absolute and relative riskiness
• Ruin-based risk measures in discrete-time risk models
• Multiple per-claim reinsurance based on maximizing the Lundberg exponent

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