Estimation of reproduction number and non stationary spectral analysis of dengue epidemic

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2017.03.007zbMATH Open1377.92083arXiv1611.05741OpenAlexW2553652328WikidataQ40061987 ScholiaQ40061987MaRDI QIDQ2407321FDOQ2407321

Authors: Murali Krishna Enduri, Shivakumar Jolad 

Publication date: 29 September 2017

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this work we analyze the post monsoon Dengue outbreaks by analyzing the transient and long term dynamics of Dengue incidences and its environmental correlates in Ahmedabad city in western India from 2005-2012. We calculate the reproduction number $R_p$ using the growth rate of post monsoon Dengue outbreaks and biological parameters like host and vector incubation periods and vector mortality rate, and its uncertainties are estimated through Monte-Carlo simulations by sampling parameters from their respective probability distributions. Reduction in Female Aedes mosquito density required for an effective prevention of Dengue outbreaks is also calculated. The non stationary pattern of Dengue incidences and its climatic correlates like rainfall temperature is analyzed through Wavelet based methods. We find that the mean time lag between peak of monsoon and Dengue is 9 weeks. Monsoon and Dengue cases are phase locked from 2008-2012 in the 16-32 weeks band. The duration of post monsoon outbreak has been increasing every year, especially post 2008, even though the intensity and duration of monsoon has been decreasing. Temperature and Dengue incidences show correlations in the same band, but phase lock is not stationary.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.05741

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zbMATH Keywords

time seriesspectral analysisepidemicsreproduction numberdenguewavelets coherence analysis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Epidemiology (92D30) Numerical methods for wavelets (65T60)

Cites Work

• Ten Lectures on Wavelets
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• Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data
• The basic reproduction number \(\mathcal R_0\) and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile
• Dengue fever: Mathematical modelling and computer simulation
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Cited In (5)

• Epicasting: an ensemble wavelet neural network for forecasting epidemics
• The basic reproduction number \(\mathcal R_0\) and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile
• Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data
• Minimum wave speed for dengue prevalence in the symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals
• EFFECT OF HUMAN MOBILITY ON PREDICTIVE SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODEL OF DENGUE EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION

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