Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks

DOI10.1007/S11538-010-9541-4MaRDI QIDQ2430581zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw

Publication date 8 April 2011

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4935, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2995850

zbMATH Keywords

denguemetapopulation models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Abstract: We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, on the stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic model used in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single well mixed population. It is shown numerically that migration between two non-identical patches stabilizes the endemic steady state, delaying the onset of large amplitude outbreaks and reducing the total number of infections. This result is motivated by analyzing generic Hopf bifurcations with different frequencies and with diffusive coupling between them. Stabilization of the steady state is again seen, indicating that our observation in the full multistrain model is based on qualitative characteristics of the dynamics rather than on details of the disease model.

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Cites work

• A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions
• Epidemic modeling in metapopulation systems with heterogeneous coupling pattern: theory and simulations
• Hopf bifurcation in two SIRS density dependent epidemic models
• Instabilities in multiserotype disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement
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• Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases
• The dynamics of cocirculating influenza strains conferring partial cross-immunity
• The effect of global travel on the spread of SARS
• Vaccinations in disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement

Cited in

(5)

• Unraveling within-host signatures of dengue infection at the population level
• Spread of disease in a patchy environment
• A vector-host model to assess the impact of superinfection exclusion on vaccination strategies using dengue and yellow fever as case studies
• A simple periodic-forced model for dengue fitted to incidence data in Singapore
• Host-virus evolutionary dynamics with specialist and generalist infection strategies: bifurcations, bistability, and chaos

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