Extreme value analysis for evaluating ozone control strategies

DOI10.1214/13-AOAS628MaRDI QIDQ2443142zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Brian J. Reich, Daniel Cooley, Kristen Foley, Sergey Napelenok, Benjamin A. Shaby

Publication date 4 April 2014

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.1816, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1372338466

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric regression and quantile regression (62G08) Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Application models in control theory (93C95)

Abstract: Tropospheric ozone is one of six criteria pollutants regulated by the US EPA, and has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular endpoints and adverse effects on vegetation and ecosystems. Regional photochemical models have been developed to study the impacts of emission reductions on ozone levels. The standard approach is to run the deterministic model under new emission levels and attribute the change in ozone concentration to the emission control strategy. However, running the deterministic model requires substantial computing time, and this approach does not provide a measure of uncertainty for the change in ozone levels. Recently, a reduced form model (RFM) has been proposed to approximate the complex model as a simple function of a few relevant inputs. In this paper, we develop a new statistical approach to make full use of the RFM to study the effects of various control strategies on the probability and magnitude of extreme ozone events. We fuse the model output with monitoring data to calibrate the RFM by modeling the conditional distribution of monitoring data given the RFM using a combination of flexible semiparametric quantile regression for the center of the distribution where data are abundant and a parametric extreme value distribution for the tail where data are sparse. Selected parameters in the conditional distribution are allowed to vary by the RFM value and the spatial location. Also, due to the simplicity of the RFM, we are able to embed the RFM in our Bayesian hierarchical framework to obtain a full posterior for the model input parameters, and propagate this uncertainty to the estimation of the effects of the control strategies. We use the new framework to evaluate three potential control strategies, and find that reducing mobile-source emissions has a larger impact than reducing point-source emissions or a combination of several emission sources.

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Cited in

(8)

• Quantifying local creation and regional transport using a hierarchical space-time model of ozone as a function of observed \(\text{NO}_{\text{x}}\), a latent space-time VOC process, emissions, and meteorology
• A statistical modeling approach for air quality data based on physical dispersion processes and its application to ozone modeling
• Multilevel quantile function modeling with application to birth outcomes
• A spectral method for spatial downscaling
• A Reduced-order Photo-chemical Air Quality Model
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• Assessing exceedance of ozone standards: a space‐time downscaler for fourth highest ozone concentrations
• Modeling nonstationary surface-level ozone extremes through the lens of US air quality standards: a Bayesian hierarchical approach

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• ismev
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