Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest
In this paper, the authors present a model that makes a first, highly simplified step towards integrating fire spread models with tree demography. Particularly, it is discussed a simple dynamical model for a system of grass, saplings and trees, where the probability of a tree-to-grass transition (i.e., tree mortality) is constant but where the probability of a sapling-to-tree transition (i.e., tree establishment) depends on whether a grass site belongs to a flammable patch large enough for the fire to spread. Those local interactions between fire and tree demography are based on some results from percolation theory, which generate a dynamic analogous to the one described in [\textit{A. C. Staver} et al., ``The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states, Science 334, No. 6053, 230--232 (2011; \url{doi:10.1126/science.1210465})], thus providing a mechanistic explanation for their approach. Sapling and tree mortality (i.e. the transition from sapling to grass and tree to grass, respectively) occurs at constant rates, but the rate of tree establishment (i.e. the transition from sapling to tree) varies depending on the incidence of fire. In a very simple infection model for fire spread presented by authors, the value of the threshold for fire spread is determined by the local infection probability, where the infection probability is higher and bistability can occur. Therefore, interannual stochasticity in the probability of fire can strongly increase the steepness of the trees demographic response to grass cover, consistent with the hypothesis that variation in fire frequency can promote the stability of savanna systems via the storage effect . Any synthetic interpretation of the geometry of savanna systems, especially at their boundary with forests, likely shall need to incorporate an analysis of spatial patterns.
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