Le Her and other problems in probability discussed by Bernoulli, Montmort and Waldegrave

DOI10.1214/14-STS469zbMATH Open1332.01015arXiv1504.01950MaRDI QIDQ254404FDOQ254404

Authors: David R. Bellhouse, Nicolas Fillion 

Publication date: 8 March 2016

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Part V of the second edition of Pierre R'{e}mond de Montmort's Essay d'analyse sur les jeux de hazard published in 1713 contains correspondence on probability problems between Montmort and Nicolaus Bernoulli. This correspondence begins in 1710. The last published letter, dated November 15, 1713, is from Montmort to Nicolaus Bernoulli. There is some discussion of the strategy of play in the card game Le Her and a bit of news that Montmort's friend Waldegrave in Paris was going to take care of the printing of the book. From earlier correspondence between Bernoulli and Montmort, it is apparent that Waldegrave had also analyzed Le Her and had come up with a mixed strategy as a solution. He had also suggested working on the "problem of the pool," or what is often called Waldegrave's problem. The Universit"{a}tsbibliothek Basel contains an additional forty-two letters between Bernoulli and Montmort written after 1713, as well as two letters between Bernoulli and Waldegrave. The letters are all in French, and here we provide translations of key passages. The trio continued to discuss probability problems, particularly Le Her which was still under discussion when the Essay d'analyse went to print. We describe the probability content of this body of correspondence and put it in its historical context. We also provide a proper identification of Waldegrave based on manuscripts in the Archives nationales de France in Paris.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1504.01950

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zbMATH Keywords

history of game theoryhistory of probabilityLe Herstrategy of play

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

History of mathematics in the 18th century (01A50) History of probability theory (60-03) History of game theory, economics, and finance (91-03)

Cites Work

• Abraham de Moivre: Setting the stage for classical probability and its applications
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• Randomisation, and an old enigma of card play
• The problem of Waldegrave

Cited In (6)

• Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré
• The eighteenth-century origins of the concept of mixed-strategy equilibrium in game theory
• The problem of Waldegrave
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• On de Moivre's solutions of the problem of duration of play 1708--1718
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