Modeling of contact tracing in epidemic populations structured by disease age

DOI10.3934/DCDSB.2015.20.1685MaRDI QIDQ256870zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Xi Huo

Publication date 10 March 2016

Published in Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems. Series B (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.2120

zbMATH Keywords

age since infectioncontact tracingepidemic diseasequarantineSARSsmallpox

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences (35Q92) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected population are modeled by a nonlinear infection-age-dependent partial differential equation, which is coupled with an ordinary differential equation that describes the dynamics of the susceptible population. Theoretical results about global existence and uniqueness of positive solutions are proved. We also present two practical applications of our model: (1) we assess public health guidelines about emergency preparedness and response in the event of a smallpox bioterrorist attack; (2) we simulate the 2003 SARS outbreak in Taiwan and estimate the number of cases avoided by contact tracing. Our model can be applied as a rational basis for decision makers to guide interventions and deploy public health resources in future epidemics.

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Cited in

(6)

• Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
• Preface
• A model for an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation, and a detection paradox
• General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
• A mathematical modeling study of the effectiveness of contact tracing in reducing the spread of infectious diseases with incubation period
• Congruent epidemic models for unstructured and structured populations: analytical reconstruction of a 2003 SARS outbreak

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