Dynamics of epidemic models with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession

DOI10.3934/MBE.2017073MaRDI QIDQ2628154zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Yilei Tang, Dongmei Xiao, Di Zhu, Weinian Zhang

Publication date 12 June 2017

Published in Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.03831

zbMATH Keywords

asymptomatic infectionbasic reproduction numberepidemic modelseasonal successionthreshold dynamics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bifurcation theory for ordinary differential equations (34C23) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number $mathcal{R}_0$ is defined and valuated directly for this model, and the uniformly persistent of the disease and threshold dynamics are obtained. Specially, global dynamics of the model without seasonal force are studied. It is shown that the model has only a disease-free equilibrium which is globally stable if $mathcal{R}_{0}le1$, and as $mathcal{R}_0>1$ the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the model has an endemic equilibrium, which is globally stable if the recovering rates of asymptomatic infective and symptomatic infective are close. These theoretical results provide an intuitive basis for understanding that the asymptomatic infective individuals and the disease seasonal transmission promote the evolution of epidemic, which allow us to predict the outcomes of control strategies during the course of the epidemic.

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Cited in

(17)

• A periodic disease transmission model with asymptomatic carriage and latency periods
• How to control the immigration of infectious individuals for a region?
• Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics
• Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
• Analysis of a COVID-19 epidemic model with seasonality
• Modeling seasonal variation for mosquito-borne disease in the tropical monsoon environment
• Dynamics of trachoma epidemic in human contact network with seasonally varying infectious medium
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• Periodic dynamics of a single species model with seasonal Michaelis-Menten type harvesting
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• Nonequilibrium phase transitions in metapopulation models of infectious diseases on heterogeneous networks
• Evaluating the intensity of a potential yellow fever outbreak during an international trading event: a case study on Canton Fair

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