Geo-information system of tuberculosis spread based on inversion and prediction

DOI10.1515/JIIP-2020-0022MaRDI QIDQ2660873zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Aliya Takuadina, Darya Andornaya, Sergey I. Kabanikhin, Olga I. Krivorotko, Shuhua Zhang

Publication date 31 March 2021

Published in Journal of Inverse and Ill-posed Problems (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.02367

zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologygenetic algorithminverse problemordinary differential equations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Numerical solution of inverse problems involving ordinary differential equations (65L09) Mathematical modeling or simulation for problems pertaining to biology (92-10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: The monitoring, analysis and prediction of epidemic spread in the region require the construction of mathematical model, big data processing and visualization because the amount of population and the size of the region could be huge. One of the important steps is refinement of mathematical model, i.e. determination of initial data and coefficients of system of differential equations which describe the epidemiology processes. We analyze numerical method for solving inverse problem of epidemiology based on genetic algorithm and traditional optimization ideas. Numerical results are applied to analysis and prediction of epidemic situation in regions of Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan and People's Republic of China. Due to a great amount of data we use a special Geo-information system for visualization of epidemic process, i.e. a special software named Digital Earth.

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Cites work

• A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs
• Comparison of the gradient and simplex methods for numerical solution of an inverse problem for the simplest model of an infectious disease
• Construction of a mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission in highly endemic regions of the Asia-Pacific
• Definitions and examples of inverse and ill-posed problems
• Modeling and inverse problems in the presence of uncertainty
• On identifiability of nonlinear ODE models and applications in viral dynamics

Cited in

(2)

• Monitoring of the system of threats and epidemic detection
• A combined numerical algorithm for reconstructing the mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission with control programs

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