Spatialized epidemiological forecasting applied to Covid-19 pandemic at departmental scale in France
This paper studies a spatially distributed SIR epidemic model forecasting and considers its application to Covid pandemic data. The system is described by a compartment model taking into consideration of spatial heterogeneity of the dynamics. In addition to the usual susceptible, infectious and recovered compartments, the paper also considers detected and undetected infected individuals and recovered individuals, respectively. Hospitalized individuals and those who received intensive care are also factored in. Meshless numerical scheme is used to simulate the system on a complex spatial domain. Some time-dependent model reduction skills have been employed to lower short-term forecast complexity. The spatial domain is restricted to the French department of Isère and a calibration procedure is proposed to moderate the model over the period of the first French confinement.
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