Spatio-temporal low count processes with application to violent crime events

DOI10.5705/SS.2014.217TzbMATH Open1356.62131arXiv1304.5642OpenAlexW2964306455MaRDI QIDQ2828618FDOQ2828618

Authors: Sivan Aldor-Noiman, Emily B. Fox, Robert A. Stine, Lawrence Brown 

Publication date: 26 October 2016

Published in: Statistica Sinica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited by violent crimes in order to make such predictions. The temporal variation of crimes typically follows patterns familiar in time series analysis, but the spatial patterns are irregular and do not vary smoothly across the area. Instead we find that spatially disjoint regions exhibit correlated crime patterns. It is this indeterminate inter-region correlation structure along with the low-count, discrete nature of counts of serious crimes that motivates our proposed forecasting tool. In particular, we propose to model the crime counts in each region using an integer-valued first order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly discover a clustering of these region-specific time series. We then describe how to account for covariates within this framework. Both approaches adjust for seasonality. We demonstrate our approach through an analysis of weekly reported violent crimes in Washington, D.C. between 2001-2008. Our forecasts outperform standard methods while additionally providing useful tools such as prediction intervals.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.5642

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zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian nonparametric methodsINARlow-count time seriesviolent crime counts

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25)

Cited In (10)

• Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial–Temporal Point Processes With Covariates
• Space-time Integer-valued ARMA modelling for time series of counts
• Autoregressive mixture models for dynamic spatial Poisson processes: application to tracking intensity of violent crime
• Spatiotemporal-textual point processes for crime linkage detection
• Nonparametric Bayesian segmentation of a multivariate inhomogeneous space-time Poisson process
• Deep learning for real-time crime forecasting and its ternarization
• Spatial modeling of trends in crime over time in Philadelphia
• Space and circular time log Gaussian Cox processes with application to crime event data
• Spatial interaction of crime incidents in Japan
• Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ ``Real-time crime forecasting challenge

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