Prevalence and trend estimation from observational data with highly variable post-stratification weights

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS874zbMATH Open1454.62057arXiv1606.07228WikidataQ56880768 ScholiaQ56880768MaRDI QIDQ288562FDOQ288562

Authors: Yannick Vandendijck, Christel Faes, Niel Hens 

Publication date: 27 May 2016

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In observational surveys, post-stratification is used to reduce bias resulting from differences between the survey population and the population under investigation. However, this can lead to inflated post-stratification weights and, therefore, appropriate methods are required to obtain less variable estimates. Proposed methods include collapsing post-strata, trimming post-stratification weights, generalized regression estimators (GREG) and weight smoothing models, the latter defined by random-effects models that induce shrinkage across post-stratum means. Here, we first describe the weight-smoothing model for prevalence estimation from binary survey outcomes in observational surveys. Second, we propose an extension of this method for trend estimation. And, third, a method is provided such that the GREG can be used for prevalence and trend estimation for observational surveys. Variance estimates of all methods are described. A simulation study is performed to compare the proposed methods with other established methods. The performance of the nonparametric GREG is consistent over all simulation conditions and therefore serves as a valuable solution for prevalence and trend estimation from observational surveys. The method is applied to the estimation of the prevalence and incidence trend of influenza-like illness using the 2010/2011 Great Influenza Survey in Flanders, Belgium.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.07228

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zbMATH Keywords

nonparametric regressionbinary datarandom-effects modelempirical Bayes estimationinfluenza-like illnessobservational surveypost-stratification

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Nonparametric regression and quantile regression (62G08) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Sampling theory, sample surveys (62D05)

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Cited In (2)

• Prevalence and trend estimation from observational data with highly variable post-stratification weights
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