Power-weighted densities for time series data

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS893zbMATH Open1359.62393arXiv1412.4059OpenAlexW2277025452MaRDI QIDQ288591FDOQ288591

Shane T. Jensen, Daniel McCarthy

Publication date: 27 May 2016

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: While time series prediction is an important, actively studied problem, the predictive accuracy of time series models is complicated by non-stationarity. We develop a fast and effective approach to allow for non-stationarity in the parameters of a chosen time series model. In our power-weighted density (PWD) approach, observations in the distant past are down-weighted in the likelihood function relative to more recent observations, while still giving the practitioner control over the choice of data model. One of the most popular non-stationary techniques in the academic finance community, rolling window estimation, is a special case of our PWD approach. Our PWD framework is a simpler alternative compared to popular state-space methods that explicitly model the evolution of an underlying state vector. We demonstrate the benefits of our PWD approach in terms of predictive performance compared to both stationary models and alternative non-stationary methods. In a financial application to thirty industry portfolios, our PWD method has a significantly favorable predictive performance and draws a number of substantive conclusions about the evolution of the coefficients and the importance of market factors over time.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.4059

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingfinancepower priortime series analysis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics (62P05)

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Cited In (3)

• Monotonic effects of characteristics on returns
• A comparison of truncated and time-weighted Plackett-Luce models for probabilistic forecasting of Formula One results
• Predicting COVID-19 hospitalisation using a mixture of Bayesian predictive syntheses

Uses Software

• dlm
• BayesDA

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