Conditioned, quasi-stationary, restricted measures and escape from metastable states

Abstract: We study the asymptotic hitting time

a u^{(n)}

of a family of Markov processes

X^{(n)}

to a target set

G^{(n)}

when the process starts from a trap defined by very general properties. We give an explicit description of the law of

X^{(n)}

conditioned to stay within the trap, and from this we deduce the exponential distribution of

a u^{(n)}

. Our approach is very broad ---it does not require reversibility, the target

G

does not need to be a rare event, and the traps and the limit on

n

can be of very general nature--- and leads to explicit bounds on the deviations of

a u^{(n)}

from exponentially. We provide two non trivial examples to which our techniques directly apply.

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