Exact and approximate hidden Markov chain filters based on discrete observations
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asymmetric telegraph processBrownian motioncontinuous-time Markov chaindiscrete Bayesian filterhidden Markov modelWonham filter
Signal detection and filtering (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G35) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Computational methods in Markov chains (60J22) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27) Brownian motion (60J65) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Signal theory (characterization, reconstruction, filtering, etc.) (94A12)
Abstract: We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain. The recursion formula for the discrete-time filter is easy to derive, however involves densities which are very hard to obtain. In this paper we derive exact formulas for the necessary densities in the case the state space of the HMM consists of two elements only. This is done by relating the underlying integrated continuous-time Markov chain to the so-called asymmetric telegraph process and by using recent results on this process. In case the state space consists of more than two elements we present three different ways to approximate the densities for the filter. The first approach is based on the continuous filter problem. The second approach is to derive a PDE for the densities and solve it numerically and the third approach is a crude discrete time approximation of the Markov chain. All three approaches are compared in a numerical study.
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