Exact and approximate hidden Markov chain filters based on discrete observations

DOI10.1515/STRM-2015-0004zbMATH Open1339.60040arXiv1411.0849OpenAlexW1758341678MaRDI QIDQ293595FDOQ293595

Authors: Nicole Bäuerle, Igor Gilitschenski, Uwe Hanebeck 

Publication date: 9 June 2016

Published in: Statistics \& Risk Modeling (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain. The recursion formula for the discrete-time filter is easy to derive, however involves densities which are very hard to obtain. In this paper we derive exact formulas for the necessary densities in the case the state space of the HMM consists of two elements only. This is done by relating the underlying integrated continuous-time Markov chain to the so-called asymmetric telegraph process and by using recent results on this process. In case the state space consists of more than two elements we present three different ways to approximate the densities for the filter. The first approach is based on the continuous filter problem. The second approach is to derive a PDE for the densities and solve it numerically and the third approach is a crude discrete time approximation of the Markov chain. All three approaches are compared in a numerical study.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.0849

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zbMATH Keywords

continuous-time Markov chainhidden Markov modelBrownian motionWonham filterasymmetric telegraph processdiscrete Bayesian filter

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods in Markov chains (60J22) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Signal theory (characterization, reconstruction, filtering, etc.) (94A12) Signal detection and filtering (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G35) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20) Brownian motion (60J65) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27)

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