Prediction and predictability in population biology: noise and chaos

DOI10.1051/MMNP/201510210MaRDI QIDQ2950355zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors L. Mateus, F. Rocha, U. Skwara, Peygham Ghaffari, M. Aguiar, N. Stollenwerk

Publication date 8 October 2015

Published in Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://www.mmnp-journal.org/10.1051/mmnp/201510210/pdf

zbMATH Keywords

stochastic processesBayesian predictionLyapunov exponentsdeterministic chaosBayesian inference and model comparisonecology and epidemiology

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Epidemiology (92D30) Prediction theory (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G25) Ordinary differential equations and systems with randomness (34F05)

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 976327 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3806623 (Why is no real title available?)
• A spatially stochastic epidemic model with partial immunization shows in mean field approximation the reinfection threshold
• Master equation solution of a plant disease model
• Monte Carlo simulation of random walks with residence time dependent transition probability rates
• Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics
• Stochastic models in population biology: from dynamic noise to Bayesian description and model comparison for given data sets
• The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis
• Torus bifurcations, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue fever model with ADE and temporary cross immunity

Cited in

(6)

• Recurrence as a basis for the assessment of predictability of the irregular population dynamics
• Global Predictability of Chaotic Epidemiological Dynamics in Coupled Populations
• EPIDEMIC PREDICTABILITY IN META-POPULATION MODELS WITH HETEROGENEOUS COUPLINGS: THE IMPACT OF DISEASE PARAMETER VALUES
• Predicting Irregularities in Population Cycles
• Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions
• Modelling in ecology, epidemiology and ecoepidemiology: introduction to the special issue

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